Chartstopper: October 30, 2026

Oct 30, 2026 5:25PM EDT

Written by Michael Normyle

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Key Takeaways

• Mixed news on AI trade
• Fed holds rates as December hike odds hit 75%
• Q3 GDP grows 3.4% while PCE inflation rises to 3.6%
• Nasdaq-100® falls 2% as 10-year yields dip below 4.95%

This Week

The artificial intelligence (AI) trade was the top theme for markets this week, but the Federal Reserve, major economic data and continued developments in the Iran conflict also mattered.

The news on the AI trade was decidedly mixed:

• Anthropic released its S-1 ahead of its planned initial public offering, boosting sentiment early in the week.
• MSFT beat on earnings, with its cloud business growing nearly 50% year-over-year (YOY), and maintained positive free cash flow.
• GOOG missed on earnings as its “AI mode” search results haven’t translated to ad revenues as well as its traditional search, contributing to a record near-$500 billion loss in market cap on Thursday.
• AMZN missed on earnings, its Q3 capex was nearly $20 billion higher than expected, and its Q4 revenue projection was below expectations.
• INTC beat on earnings, but its Q4 revenue projection also disappointed.

Still, the Nasdaq-100® is on pace for 49% YOY Q3 earnings growth.

But it wasn’t all AI this week:

• The Fed left rates unchanged as expected, though markets see a 75% chance of a December hike.
• Data showed a strong economy and still-high inflation, with Q3 real GDP growing at a 3.4% annual pace, led by strong consumer spending and AI capex (though imports were a drag since most AI data center components are imported), while headline PCE inflation rose to 3.6% YOY (as expected) from 3.4% – largely due to energy inflation.
• U.S. oil prices are up a dollar per barrel and remain above $100, even with Qatar and Vice President Vance making efforts at diplomacy, amid talks of renewed attacks on Iran after the midterm elections.

So, as has been the trend the last couple of weeks, 10-year Treasury yields are down over 5 basis points to below 4.95% on apparent safe-haven demand as the selling of AI names has the Nasdaq-100® down 2% for the week.

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Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Monday: ISM & S&P Manufacturing PMIs (October), AAPL Earnings (Q3)
• Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (September), AMD Earnings (Q3)
• Wednesday: ISM & S&P Services PMIs (October)
• Thursday: Productivity (Q3), Jobless Claims (week ending Oct. 24)
• Friday: Nonfarm Jobs (October)

Tags

Artificial Intelligence Economy Earnings Central Banks Oil